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Programme of the National Assises for Strategic Research
"Anticipating strategic discontinuities"
June 24, 2010
09:00 am
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Welcome |
| 09:30 am |
Opening address by the President of the CSFRS, Mr Alain Bauer |
| 09:45 am |
Mr. Claude Guéant, Secretary General of the Presidency of the French Republic. |
| 10:30 am |
Beginning of the plenary session. Three themes will be discussed in succession and the audience will be invited to respond to the keynote address. |
| 10:30 am |
"New threats, real threats: knowing how to anticipate"
(Xavier Raufer)
In the strategic field, all defeats have a common origin, expressed by two words: too late. Conversely, to win, to master a major problem, implies early understanding followed by timely action. Thus, in the emerging world, only early and relevant understanding can most of the time prevent dangers and threats, or at the very worst, limit their effects. Hence this preliminary statement: yes, new threats are very real. Yes, early warning makes prevention possible.
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| 11:10 am |
"A defence without borders" (Nicole Chaix)
The fight against terrorism, trafficking of all sorts and mafias must be of serious concern to States that these threats weaken and sometimes even break apart. Added to attention to detail, detection of early warning weak signals in respect of new terrorism and new criminality, there are growing tensions between nations.
Like the build up before an earthquake, the level of energy of the major national blocks is increasing. The same applies to their needs, and this will certainly lead to confrontation in a possibly not so distant future. The preparation of the armed forces for future defence has been based for a long time on analysis of the malfunctioning of conflicts in progress. The resultant costly defences often proved useless or were circumvented.
In view of the changes of paradigm affecting defence as well as security or the economy, we must now think of the methods to give us the means, in a very constrained financial world, to quickly adapt to still unrecognized and changing future needs.
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| 11:50 am |
"From resilience to innovation" (Philippe Baumard)
The thinking about the economy is still governed by social and capitalist models of the past.
Although:
A new model is taking shape.
It is neither viable nor sustainable and threatens fundamental principles (freedom, fairness…).
It is imperative to innovate in social, economic and financial models to ensure our resilience.
We are far from ready (description of the new R&D-universities interaction logics, micro-financing, logics of functionality economy, central role played by innovation in a “commoditised” world).
It is both a security problem and an urgent issue to invent and take the leadership on revitalization of modern capitalism.
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12:30 pm
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Lunch break |
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2:15 pm – 4:15 pm
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Workshops held in parallel
With a more hands-on approach, the workshops will explore some of the strategic research challenges. In each workshop, junior researchers will share their concerns and participants will be invited to respond and have discussions.
Workshop 1: “New vulnerabilities of ICT”
Moderator: Cédric Blancher, EADS
Workshop 2: “New defence challenges”
Moderator: Robert Ranquet, IHEDN
Workshop 3: “Security and the rule of law”
Moderator: Nicolas Arpagian, "Prospective stratégique" (Strategic foresight) magazine
Workshop 4: “Neurosciences and crisis management”
Moderator: Pascal Huguet, Cognitive Psychology Lab, UMR CNRS 6146 (to be confirmed)
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| 4:30 pm |
Plenary: summary report
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| 5:00 pm |
Mr. Michel Rocard, former Prime minister. |
| 6:00 pm |
End of the Assises. |
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